NASCAR playoff rankings: Clinching scenarios, outlook heading into elimination race

The race at Watkins Glen was a rarity as no playoff driver finished in the top 5.

Don’t expect the same at Bristol Motor Speedway this Saturday night in the elimination race of the opening round where four drivers will be eliminated from the playoffs.

NASCAR’s version of the playoffs — where those outside the playoffs still compete each week as well — runs over the final 10 races of the season. The first three rounds consist of three races and the four winless drivers in the round lowest in points are eliminated, setting up four drivers who are eligible for the title in the season finale at Phoenix with the driver who finishes the best (they don’t get stage points) crowned the champion.

In each round, the advancing drivers’ point totals are reset (2000 in the first round, 3000 in the quarterfinal round, 4000 in the semifinal round, 5000 for the championship) with the playoff points they earned during the season added to their total except for the championship race.

The tracks:

• Opening round: Atlanta (winner: Joey Logano), Watkins Glen (winner: Chris Buescher, not a playoff driver), Bristol (0.533-mile concrete oval).
• Quarterfinal round: Kansas (1.5-mile oval), Talladega (2.66-mile superspeedway), Charlotte (road course).
• Semifinal round: Las Vegas (1.5-mile oval), Homestead (1.5-mile oval), Martinsville (0.526-mile oval).
• Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval).

Several drivers could clinch a spot in the next round during the first two stages Saturday night at Bristol and about half the field likely will be nervous down to the wire.

Here’s my playoff rankings based on best shot to win the title to the worst shot. And I describe what they need to do to advance as far as clinching scenarios:

1. Christopher Bell (Last Week: 1)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota
Position: 2nd, +46 on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 10th

Bell clinches with 14 points at Bristol, which is a 23rd-place finish with no stage points, no matter what anyone else does. He likely will be in, barring any huge trouble, by the end of the second stage. Last year in the playoff race, he swept the stages and led 187 laps. Heck, he probably could spin twice as he did at Watkins Glen and still make it no problem. 

Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (no change)

2. Tyler Reddick (LW: 3)
23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota
Position: 6th, +30 on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 30th

Reddick clinches with 30 points at Bristol, which is a seventh with no stage points, no matter what anyone else does. He has just one top-10 in six Bristol starts, so it is good he shouldn’t have to finish seventh. He just needs to avoid trouble, which is easier said than done at Bristol. Like a 15th-place finish as he had at the race a year ago should be more than good enough.

Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (no change)

3. Kyle Larson (LW: 2)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet
Position: 9th, +26 on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 5th

Larson clinches with 34 points at Bristol, which is a third-place finish with no stage points no matter what anyone else does. For someone who is a favorite, he should be more dominant after two playoff races. But he should be OK to advance to the next round as he led 19 laps and finished fifth at Bristol in the spring and a year ago he was second in leading 20 laps.

Prediction: Champion (no change)

4. Ryan Blaney (LW: 4)
Team Penske No. 12 Ford
Position: 8th, +29 on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 16th

Blaney clinches with 31 points at Bristol, which is a sixth-place finish with no stage points no matter what anyone else does. That’s not a bad position considering he didn’t complete a lap at Watkins Glen. His fans have to be a little nervous, though, considering he has finished two laps down in each of his last two Bristol starts. Still, his buffer on the cutline should allow them to breathe easy. Or relatively easy.

Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (no change)

5. William Byron (LW: 5)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet
Position: 10th, +25 on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 35th

Byron clinches with 35 points at Bristol, which is a second-place finish with no stage points no matter what anyone else does. A top-10 should be good enough (and even a top-25 likely will get him through). He has four top-10s in 10 Bristol starts. He was ninth in this race a year ago. He would need several bad things out of his control to happen for him not to advance.

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)

6. Chase Elliott (LW: 7)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet
Position: 7th, +30 on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 8th

Elliott, like Reddick, clinches with 30 points at Bristol, which is a seventh-place finish with no stage points no matter what anyone else does. He has eight top-10s in 14 starts at Bristol and an eighth and a seventh in his last two starts there. He seems to thrive in this race and should be good.

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)

7. Denny Hamlin (LW: 6)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota
Position: 13th, -6 points on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 1st

Hamlin needs to gain seven points on Ty Gibbs or Chase Briscoe to advance, and considering he has won the last two races at Bristol, he has to feel that is a reasonable challenge. He has four wins, 11 top-5s and 18 top-10s at Bristol in 34 starts. But it is easy to wonder that even if he advances, will the pressure and effort it has taken in this round have a toll in the next round? It sure seems as if this team has lost its edge.

Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (change from eliminated in semifinal round)

8. Alex Bowman (LW: 8)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet
Position: 4th, +41 on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 4th

Bowman clinches with 19 points at Bristol, which is 18th with no stage points no matter what anyone else does. He was fourth there in the spring and 13th a year ago. He has enough of a cushion that it would have to be a scenario where he has trouble and none of the other playoff drivers have trouble at Bristol, which is a quite unlikely scenario because … history says that several of the playoff drivers will have trouble at Bristol.

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (change from eliminated in quarterfinal round)

9. Joey Logano (LW: 9)
Team Penske No. 22 Ford
Position: Advanced to Round of 12 (quarterfinal round) with Atlanta win
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 22nd

Last year was one of the lowest points for Logano when he was eliminated in the playoffs in a crash at Bristol. He has nothing to worry about this year other than Kansas the following week.

Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round

10. Brad Keselowski (LW: 10)
RFK Racing No. 6 Ford
Position: 14th, -12 from the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 3rd

Keselowski needs to gain 13 points on Ty Gibbs or Chase Briscoe and seven points on Denny Hamlin to advance. While he’s great at Bristol — he was third last spring and earned 50 points and has three career Cup wins at the track, he just hasn’t been strong enough in recent weeks to see it as likely.

Prediction: Eliminated in first round (no change)

11. Austin Cindric (LW: 11)
Team Penske No. 2 Ford
Position: 3rd, +43 points on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 31st

Cindric clinches with 17 points at Bristol, which is 20th with no stage points no matter what anyone else does. He has an average finish of 28.3 at Bristol in three Cup starts, so he might need nearly all the points he has in his buffer. But he has enough that he has nothing to worry about.

Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (no change)

12. Daniel Suarez (LW: 14)
Trackhouse Racing No. 99 Chevrolet
Position: 5th, +36 points on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 18th

Suarez clinches with 23 points at Bristol, which is a 14th-place finish with no stage points no matter what anyone else does. He has an 18th and a 21st in his last two starts there, and that should be good enough. He has two career top-10s at Bristol. He should be good as long as he avoids disaster.

Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (no change)

13. Ty Gibbs (LW: 13)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 54 Toyota
Position: 12th, +6 points on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 9th

Gibbs clinches with 54 points at Bristol, which is 19 stage points (out of a possible 20) and a second-place finish no matter what anyone else does. He won’t need to be that good, but he’ll need to run near the front all day as Hamlin will be expected to challenge at six points behind. Gibbs swept the stages at Bristol and led 137 laps in the spring. He has two top-10s in three Bristol starts and has led 239 laps there in his Cup career. He should be ready for the challenge. 

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)

14. Martin Truex Jr. (LW: 12)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota
Position: 15th, -14 points behind the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 2nd

Truex needs to gain 15 points on Chase Briscoe or Ty Gibbs, seven points on Denny Hamlin and three points on Brad Keselowski. He has five top-10s in 34 starts at Bristol and an average finish of 20.2. Yes, he was second in the spring and led 54 laps there. But this is a tall order with all the pressure on in his final full-time season.

Prediction: Eliminated in opening round (no change)

15. Chase Briscoe (LW: 15)
Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Ford
Position: 11th, +6 points on the playoff cutoff 
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 13th

Briscoe clinches with 54 points at Bristol, which is 19 stage points (out of a possible 20) and a second-place finish no matter what anyone else does. He has no top-10s in Bristol in four Cup starts. Although he’s above the cutline, this is going to be a fight for him to keep Hamlin and/or Keselowski from earning more stage points than him and putting the pressure on him to have his best Bristol night.

Prediction: Eliminated in opening round (no change)

16. Harrison Burton (LW: 16)
Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 Ford
Position: 16th, -20 points on the playoff cutoff
March 2024 Bristol Finish: 32nd

Burton has a 25.3 average in three Bristol starts. He’s finished five laps down in each of his last two starts at the track. Asking him to vault 20 points — and have better days than veterans Hamlin, Keselowski and Truex is a big, big, big ask.

Prediction: Eliminated in opening round (no change)

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.

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