2024 NFL Week 3 action report: Books need Eagles to ‘be who we thought they were’

The public betting masses took a beating in NFL Week 2, but they’re back for more in NFL Week 3 odds, putting a lot of their eggs in one basket.

However, it’s the most unexpected basket compared with, say, two weeks ago. And it’s not just public bettors.

“The public and the sharps are all in on the Saints,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.

That would be for Sunday’s big Philadelphia Eagles-New Orleans Saints clash on FOX.

Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Eagles-Saints and more, as we dive into this week’s NFL betting nuggets.

NFL Rocks On FOX

On Sunday night, after the Saints’ impressive 44-19 win at Dallas, but before the Eagles’ Monday night game vs. Atlanta, Caesars Sports opened Saints vs. Eagles at Philadelphia -2.5 (-115).

On Monday, that line dropped to Eagles -2, then -1, on what Feazel noted was sharp action. That was still before Philly’s home opener against the Falcons. Then on Tuesday morning, after Philadelphia stunningly lost 22-21, the Eagles-Saints line jumped the fence to New Orleans -1.5.

Bettors quickly pushed it out to Saints -2.5, and on Wednesday morning, the line got to New Orleans -3 (even) for Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.

“The Saints are coming off two 40-point performances, where they’ve absolutely dominated their opponents,” Feazel said. “Everybody is gonna be all in on Derek Carr and the Saints. Carr had his Kirk Cousins ‘You like that’ game, and you saw the market react.

“It’s one-sided action, not even close. We’re gonna need the Eagles to be who we thought they were at the beginning of the season.”

NFL Sharp Side professional bettor Randy McKay is involved with a couple of matchups in NFL Week 3 odds. Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (knee) missed last week’s win over Indianapolis and is questionable Sunday at Tennessee.

But McKay likes the Packers, and the line is moving Green Bay’s way.

“I took Green Bay +3,” McKay said of a line that’s gone from Titans -3 to -1.5. “This will be a low-scoring, running-the-ball-style game. I think Green Bay is better on both the offensive and defensive line. Even though Malik Willis [could] still be the QB, he doesn’t turn the ball over like Will Levis on the other side.”

Levis has three interceptions through Tennessee’s first two games.

The Detroit Lions are coming off a surprising 20-16 home loss to Tampa Bay. But McKay is backing Jared Goff & Co. at Arizona this week.

“I took Detroit -2.5. It’s OK to play -3 (even),” he said “With Detroit’s poor performance last week, and Arizona’s big win vs. the L.A. Rams, I like the Lions to win by 3 or more here. The game should be a shootout, but I favor Detroit’s better defense.”

NFL Rocks On FOX, Part II

FOX also has a marquee matchup in Sunday’s late window of games, at 4:25 p.m. ET. The Baltimore Ravens, who are 0-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), visit the Dallas Cowboys (1-1 SU and ATS), who as noted above are coming off that blowout home loss to New Orleans.

Caesars Sports is hovering around pick ‘em on this game, with the Ravens -1 as of Wednesday night.

“There’s not a lot of action. It’s not really a game people are getting involved with yet,” Feazel said. “This game has about half the action that Eagles-Saints has taken so far.”

NFL Quick Hitters

Feazel offered his behind-the-counter insights on three more notable games in NFL Week 3 odds:

• Patriots vs. Jets: In the Thursday night game, New York has toggled between -6.5/-6 this week and stood at -6 Wednesday night. “Action so far is what is expected, and that’s on the Under.” The total opened at 39, dropped to 37.5 and is now 38.5. “A lot of Under money, and more action on the Patriots side, which is not really surprising. The Patriots played well the first two weeks.”
• Chiefs vs. Falcons: Kansas City opened -4.5 at Caesars and midweek is down to -3.5 (-105) on the road for the Sunday night game. “We’re sitting at 3.5 now and maybe trending toward 3. The Falcons really showed out at Philadelphia. But right now, we’re seeing a lot of Chiefs money.”
• Jaguars vs. Bills: In the opener of a Monday night doubleheader, Buffalo is a 5-point favorite midweek at Caesars, after opening -5.5 and hitting -6 Sunday night. “We’re trending more toward 4.5, and the sharp spot is gonna be the Jags. Their backs are against the wall. I expect the Jags to come out swinging.”

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Per usual, the bulk of big-money bets for NFL Week 3 has yet to arrive. But Caesars Sports had a few show up by midweek. The largest is from a Saints believer who put $30,000 on New Orleans -2.5 (-120) vs. Philadelphia.

That customer could’ve gotten a much better number before Philly’s Monday night loss to Atlanta. Regardless, if the Saints cover the -2.5, then the bettor profits $25,000 (total payout $55,000).

Other big early plays at Caesars:

• $11,000 Patriots +6.5 vs. Jets. Potential profit of $10,000 (total payout $21,000)
• $11,000 49ers -7.5 vs. Rams. Potential profit of $10,000 (total payout $21,000)
• $10,500 Chiefs -3.5 vs Falcons. Potential profit of $9,545 (total payout $20,045)

Another Caesars customer is hoping the Saints go the distance and win the Super Bowl in their home stadium. The bettor put $7,000 on New Orleans +3500 to lift the Lombardi Trophy, for a potential profit of $245,000 (total payout $252,000).

We’ll wrap it up with a couple of leftovers from the Week 2 Monday night game. A Caesars customer put $50,000 on Falcons moneyline +205, backing Atlanta to pull the outright upset at Philadelphia.

The Falcons scored a touchdown in the final minute and won 22-21. That landed a profit of $102,500 for the bettor ($152,500 total payout).

And at FanDuel Sportsbook, a bettor had an eight-leg single-game parlay on player props for Falcons-Eagles, and all eight came in.

Turning $25 into $6,532 is the kind of ROI we could all get used to. 

It’s certainly fun to take shots like this. Just remember to temper your expectations and treat these kinds of bets like the lottery tickets — or mini-lottery tickets — that they are. 

Enjoy the games this week!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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