Judge, Ohtani or Witt? Can Astros win without Verlander? Smoltz weighs in

Despite getting pushed by the Royals and Twins, the Guardians have either led or tied for the lead in the American League Central every day since April 14. 

In the process, they have made a believer out of Hall of Famer John Smoltz.

As part of our weekly conversation with the MLB on FOX analyst, Smoltz shared his thoughts on the Guardians’ pitching staff, closer Emmanuel Clase’s Cy Young case, the Astros rotation, what he’d do about the spate of pitching injuries throughout the sport and which extraordinary season has impressed the most as American League MVP favorites Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. face off this week in the Bronx.

Kavner: Between the top two contenders for AL MVP in Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. and Shohei Ohtani’s chase for 50/50, whose season has impressed you the most?

Smoltz: Judge, in his capacity to dominate with both power and average effectively changed his team dynamic. It’s an incredible year, right? He’s got a chance to break his own home run record, which is crazy. I think all three provide just incredible storylines and arguments that are separate and different. The eye of the beholder is going to want to see this one to the finish line because I think with the idea of what Bobby Witt is single-handedly doing for Kansas City, making them relevant. Everybody knows how great Ohtani is, but then all of a sudden, he turned on his speed, which is making his season very unique. 

But at the end of the day, it’s going to be a close, close race to decide who really has impacted their team the most. Right now, I give Judge the slight favorite over Bobby Witt. It’s no slight to Ohtani. He’s the greatest player we have, and we’re seeing only one aspect of it, because he can’t pitch right now.

Kavner: In light of Justin Verlander’s struggles since his return from the IL, is the Astros rotation deep enough to go as far as they want to go without him involved?

Smoltz: I think it is. It would be much better if he clicked back into the Justin Verlander form. That would give them the deepest rotation. But Hunter Brown has been outstanding of late. Of course, they’ve got Yusei Kikuchi. They’ve got the depth, and they’ve got one of the best left-handers in the game in Framber Valdez. So, I think the Astros are still one of the teams to beat. Justin Verlander would be a bonus. I think his injuries have taken a toll on his year this year, but I’m not counting them out to figure it out. I would bank on him figuring it out.

Kavner: Who has the best pitching staff in baseball?

Smoltz: Well, it’s hard to go against the Guardians and what they can do from the sixth inning on. They have the most feared bullpen, maybe not the most feared rotation, but they play the most fundamentally sound baseball. That’s aggravating to the other team, meaning you can’t make mistakes against them. They’ll beat you on the basepaths. They’ll definitely defend you, and we know if they’ve got the lead, it’s over. I think they have the greatest fear factor and the greatest, ‘I don’t want to play them’ statement. No one’s given them respect from the beginning of the year to the end. It looked like Kansas City and Minnesota were going to catch them. 

Now, they jump back out to a nice lead. I just think the Guardians, and I’m shocked to be saying this, are one of the most feared teams in baseball because of that back end of the bullpen, and they put the ball in play.

Kavner: Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase has been especially dominant this year. Has he done enough to warrant Cy Young consideration, and how good do you feel like relievers need to be to at least be in the conversation for that award?

Smoltz: He’s having that kind of year for sure, to have that Cy Young be given to a pitcher that has been so dominant. But here’s the difference: A closer has to do extra special things to be able to win the Cy Young, and that means nobody in the league is doing anything extra special as a starter to allow that. I mean, I had 55 saves my first year as the closer and I didn’t win a Cy Young because there were a couple of guys that had some special years. 

So, the amount of saves is not necessarily the number to look at. It’s how much you’re dominating. He’s giving up less than a run per nine innings. That will hold water when it comes to voting.

I think there are cases where you can make a case for an MVP and/or Cy Young for a reliever. He has to pitch a lot, be dominant and really effectively change the way the game is being played because when he comes in, it’s over. Those isolated cases aren’t many, but in this case, I think Clase has a chance to do something special.

Kavner: Last week, Dodgers president Andrew Friedman said the club will reimagine the way they bring their pitchers along this offseason. They’ve been especially depleted, obviously. But do you think teams will actually fundamentally change the way they operate when it comes to pitching development?

Smoltz: I hope so. If they get out of the analytic department, and start realizing that the health department is bigger than the analytic department, then you’re going to see a greater shift in how they train and develop. But right now, this is definitely a scenario where you just – you can’t keep this up. I mean, this is something that you just can’t keep it up.

Kavner: If you were in charge of a team, how would you even start to go about trying to execute these sorts of fundamental changes that they might be talking about? 

Smoltz: Well, you’ve got to change your rewards system, and you’ve got to change it quickly. If your rewards system doesn’t change, then the training and the execution of what they’re asking the players to do won’t change. This is not rocket science. This is not something that we all of a sudden fell off the moon and figured out, “Oh, guys can only pitch five innings.” It’s the way they’re training and what they’re expecting them to do that is an analytical push. It’s just simply put: They want them to do this because it makes for the best-case scenario to be nasty, effective and prevent guys from hitting. At some point, there’s going to be a point of no return. 

I hope we’re there. I think baseball has been taking a look at flirting with rule changes to kind of enhance the whole industry to do it. But because there’s so many factory arms, even though they’re not ready, they’re not gonna make any wholesale changes until things like this happen to one, two or three organizations. Where you have the highest expectations of the Dodgers, and then year in and year out, the arm injuries — this is not one year. This has been going on for a long time. I think people are waking up to the fact that we can’t sustain this.

John Smoltz, a first-ballot Baseball Hall of Famer, eight-time All-Star and National League Cy Young Award winner, is FOX MLB’s lead game analyst. In addition to calling the network’s marquee regular-season games, Smoltz is in the booth for the All-Star Game and a full slate of postseason matchups which include Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series assignments.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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